Today’s model portfolio spans 3 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $6,667 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 3 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAMBull Call Spread↗ | 95% | $14,427 | 14 lots | $6,573 |
| AMATBull Call Spread↗ | 95% | $7,345 | 2 lots | $4,655 |
| AMDTHIS POSTBull Call Spread | 93% | $7,710 | 3 lots | $5,790 |
| Portfolio Total | $29,482 | 3 trades | $17,018 (+173.2% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 3 trades at $6,667 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is a global semiconductor leader operating in the Technology sector, designing high-performance CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing solutions for data centers, gaming, and embedded markets. AMD has remained a focal point for options traders in 2026, driven by sustained institutional interest in the semiconductor space and elevated implied volatility relative to broader market conditions. With the stock trading above the $500 level, options pricing models are reflecting a meaningful volatility premium — creating a structured environment where defined-risk spread strategies can offer attractive probability-weighted outcomes without requiring outsized directional conviction.
Why This Trade Setup
This Bull Call Spread expresses a moderately bullish-to-neutral view on AMD over a short 16-day window. By purchasing a lower-strike call and selling a higher-strike call, the strategy caps both the maximum gain and the maximum loss, making it a disciplined, defined-risk position. What makes this setup compelling from a quantitative standpoint is the combination of factors captured in AMD's composite quantitative score of 0.83 — a score derived from options pricing models and probability analysis, including Black-Scholes-modelled probability of profit, implied volatility regime assessment, and momentum signals. With ATM implied volatility running at 73.4%, the options market is pricing in elevated uncertainty, yet the strike placement and short duration yield a probability of profit near 93% according to the model — a notably high threshold for a debit spread structure. Momentum is currently neutral, which aligns with the spread's design: it does not require a sharp rally to reach profitability, only that AMD avoids a significant decline through expiration.
Key Risks
- Elevated implied volatility can compress rapidly. A sudden volatility crush — common after major sector catalysts — could reduce the spread's mark-to-market value before expiration, even if AMD's price holds steady.
- Short duration leaves little room to adjust. At 16 days to expiration, there is limited time to manage or roll the position if AMD moves adversely.
- Defined but real downside. The maximum loss is capped at the net debit paid, representing the full allocated capital at risk for this position across the illustrative three-contract sizing.
- Sector-wide risk events — such as unexpected macro data or semiconductor supply chain news — could move AMD sharply against the position.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.