Today’s model portfolio spans 1 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $20,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 1 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABATHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 95% | $3,525 | 47 lots | $19,975 |
| Portfolio Total | $3,525 | 1 trades | $19,975 (+17.6% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 1 trades at $20,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) is one of the world's largest e-commerce and cloud computing conglomerates, operating across retail marketplaces, logistics, digital media, and enterprise technology services. It sits within the Consumer Cyclical sector and remains one of the most actively traded large-cap names in the options market. As of July 17, 2026, BABA is trading near $115, a level that places it meaningfully below key overhead resistance. Elevated implied volatility — currently above 44% at the money — reflects ongoing macro uncertainty around Chinese equities, making the options premium environment particularly well-suited for credit-based strategies.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, premium-selling strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short strike at expiration. By selling an out-of-the-money call and buying a further out-of-the-money call as a hedge, the position collects a net credit while capping maximum loss. This setup expresses a neutral-to-bearish market view — consistent with BABA's current neutral momentum reading — and requires no directional conviction beyond the stock remaining below the short strike through expiration in 21 days. The composite quantitative score of 0.84, derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum scoring, reflects a high-conviction setup. With a probability of profit near 95% and strikes placed well above the current price, the model identifies meaningful statistical cushion on the upside. Elevated implied volatility enhances the credit collected relative to the spread width, improving the reward-to-risk profile.
Key Risks
The primary risk is a sharp, sustained rally in BABA above the short strike before expiration — a scenario that could result in the maximum loss on the position. Catalysts such as unexpected positive earnings revisions, a sudden shift in U.S.-China trade policy, or broader emerging-market risk-on flows could compress the current statistical edge. Because this is a short-premium strategy, a spike in implied volatility can also temporarily increase mark-to-market losses even if the stock has not breached the strike. Position sizing relative to total portfolio risk remains essential.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.