Today’s model portfolio spans 4 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $5,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 4 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUBear Put Spread↗ | 52% | $2,798 | 1 lot | $2,702 |
| CRDOTHIS POSTBear Put Spread | 51% | $5,350 | 10 lots | $4,650 |
| DELLBear Put Spread↗ | 49% | $5,140 | 4 lots | $4,860 |
| SPCXBear Put Spread↗ | 51% | $5,040 | 8 lots | $4,960 |
| Portfolio Total | $18,328 | 4 trades | $17,172 (+106.7% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 4 trades at $5,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ: CRDO) is a semiconductor connectivity solutions company operating in the high-growth Technology sector. Credo specializes in high-speed SerDes and line-card interconnect products that serve hyperscale data centers and enterprise networking infrastructure. The stock has attracted significant options market attention, with implied volatility running at an elevated level that reflects meaningful near-term uncertainty. Against a backdrop of broad semiconductor sector rotation and profit-taking pressure in high-multiple names, CRDO's options market is pricing in a wide range of outcomes — a condition that systematic options screening is designed to exploit.
Why This Trade Setup
This Bear Put Spread expresses a moderately bearish directional view over a short 16-day holding window expiring November 6, 2026. The structure involves buying a higher-strike put and selling a lower-strike put, defining both the maximum cost and the maximum potential payoff at expiration. The position is entered as a net debit. What makes this setup compelling from a quantitative standpoint is the confluence of signals captured in the composite quantitative score of 0.89 — a score derived from options pricing models and probability analysis, including Black-Scholes-modelled probability of profit, implied volatility regime classification, and momentum indicators. With ATM implied volatility near 80%, options premiums are rich, and the spread structure helps offset that elevated cost. The momentum signal is firmly bearish, aligning the directional bias with the trade's profit zone. A probability of profit near the coin-flip threshold, combined with a well-defined risk envelope, makes this a measured, model-supported position within a diversified spread portfolio.
Key Risks
The primary risk is a move higher in CRDO shares before expiration, which would cause the spread to expire worthless and result in the full loss of the net debit paid — the maximum loss per share, multiplied across the 10-contract position. With 16 days to expiration, any positive catalyst — an earnings pre-announcement, sector re-rating, or broader market rally — could rapidly erode the position's value. Elevated implied volatility also means the stock is capable of large daily moves in either direction. This trade carries no undefined risk, but the full allocated capital is at risk if the trade moves against the position.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.