Today’s model portfolio spans 4 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $5,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 4 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEBear Put Spread↗ | 50% | $6,108 | 7 lots | $4,392 |
| SLVBear Put Spread↗ | 50% | $6,105 | 37 lots | $4,995 |
| NVDABear Call Spread↗ | 88% | $682 | 22 lots | $4,836 |
| IBITTHIS POSTBear Put Spread | 50% | $5,762 | 43 lots | $4,988 |
| Portfolio Total | $18,656 | 4 trades | $19,211 (+97.1% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 4 trades at $5,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is one of the most actively traded instruments in the Digital Assets / Alternatives sector, offering investors direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements through a regulated ETF wrapper. IBIT has drawn sustained attention from both institutional and retail participants since its launch, and its options market has matured rapidly — making it a viable candidate for systematic options screening. As of October 28, 2026, the underlying is trading near $45.91, with momentum indicators tilting bearish and implied volatility running at an elevated level that meaningfully influences options pricing.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Put Spread is a defined-risk, directionally bearish strategy constructed by purchasing a higher-strike put and selling a lower-strike put on the same expiration. The position is entered at a net debit — meaning capital is paid upfront, and the maximum loss is limited to that initial outlay. The maximum gain is realized if the underlying settles at or below the short put strike at expiration. With 16 days to expiration, this is a short-duration trade designed to capitalize on a near-term directional move lower. The setup carries a composite quantitative score of 0.84 — derived from Black-Scholes probability weighting, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum signals — reflecting a structurally supported bearish thesis. At-the-money implied volatility of 38.0% indicates an elevated volatility environment, which widens the spread's potential value and is consistent with the current momentum reading. Strike placement brackets the current price in a range consistent with a modest, measured decline.
Key Risks
- Directional risk: If IBIT rallies or holds above the long put strike at expiration, the entire net debit paid is lost. This is the maximum loss scenario.
- Time decay: As a debit spread, theta works against this position — every day without a downward move erodes value.
- Volatility compression: A sharp drop in implied volatility before expiration can reduce the spread's mark-to-market value, even if price moves in the anticipated direction.
- Bitcoin-specific risk: IBIT is subject to the extreme price swings characteristic of digital asset markets. The probability of profit figure is an estimate, not a promise.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.