Today’s model portfolio spans 3 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $6,667 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 3 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUBull Call Spread↗ | 90% | $6,270 | 6 lots | $5,730 |
| SMHBull Call Spread↗ | 76% | $7,490 | 28 lots | $6,510 |
| NOWTHIS POSTBull Call Spread | 83% | $7,350 | 70 lots | $6,650 |
| Portfolio Total | $21,110 | 3 trades | $18,890 (+111.8% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 3 trades at $6,667 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW) is a leading enterprise software platform in the Technology sector, delivering cloud-based workflow automation and IT service management solutions to large organisations worldwide. ServiceNow commands a dominant position in the digital transformation space, with a broad and sticky customer base that spans financial services, healthcare, and government. As of May 14, 2026, NOW is trading near a technically significant level, drawing attention from systematic options screeners. Elevated implied volatility relative to recent historical norms has created a pricing environment where structured spreads offer a compelling risk-reward profile for directionally inclined traders.
Why This Trade Setup
This Bull Call Spread expresses a moderately bullish view on ServiceNow over the next 15 days, with a defined maximum loss and no exposure to unlimited downside. The strategy involves buying a lower-strike call and selling a higher-strike call within the same expiration, capping both profit potential and risk. What makes this setup stand out is its composite quantitative score of 0.81 — derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum assessment. With ATM implied volatility running at 58.5%, options premiums are elevated, which improves the relative value of the spread structure. The probability of profit modelled at 83% reflects strike placement that is well-supported by current market structure. Momentum is assessed as neutral, meaning the setup relies on price stability or modest upside rather than a sharp directional move.
Key Risks
- Time decay pressure: With only 15 days to expiration, the position has limited time to recover if NOW moves against the trade early.
- Volatility contraction: A sharp drop in implied volatility could reduce the value of the long call leg before expiration.
- Gap risk: Adverse news — earnings pre-announcements, macro shocks, or sector-wide selloffs — could push NOW below the lower strike, resulting in the maximum loss on the position.
- Liquidity risk: Wider bid-ask spreads in fast-moving markets may affect fill quality at entry or exit.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.