Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAMBull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $1,386 | 9 lots | $9,414 |
| AMDTHIS POSTBull Put Spread | 95% | $1,695 | 3 lots | $8,805 |
| Portfolio Total | $3,081 | 2 trades | $18,219 (+16.9% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is a leading semiconductor designer operating in the Technology sector, competing across CPUs, GPUs, and data center accelerator chips. AMD has remained a focal point for options traders given its elevated implied volatility relative to broader market conditions. With the stock trading above the $530 level, the options market is pricing in a wide range of potential outcomes over the near term — a dynamic that creates well-defined, probability-weighted income opportunities for disciplined spread traders willing to define their risk precisely.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bull Put Spread expresses a moderately bullish-to-neutral market view: the position profits as long as AMD remains above the short put strike at expiration, without requiring the stock to rally. With 15 days to expiration, time decay works in the position's favour from day one. The setup was surfaced through systematic options screening using Black-Scholes probability modelling and implied volatility regime analysis. AMD's ATM implied volatility is elevated, which inflates the premium collected on the short put leg — a key input that drives the attractiveness of credit spreads. The composite quantitative score of 0.8 out of 1.0, derived from options pricing models and probability analysis, reflects a well-structured risk/reward profile. The strikes are placed meaningfully below the current underlying price, and the probability of profit modelled at expiration is exceptionally high. Momentum is currently neutral, which is consistent with a non-directional income strategy rather than a speculative directional bet.
Key Risks
- Sharp downside move: A sudden, significant decline in AMD's share price — driven by earnings surprises, sector rotation, or macro shocks — could push the stock below the short put strike, resulting in a loss that scales toward the maximum defined loss per contract.
- Volatility expansion: A spike in implied volatility before expiration increases the mark-to-market loss on the position, even if the stock hasn't moved through the strikes.
- Early assignment risk: Although uncommon with spreads, the short put leg carries theoretical early assignment risk, particularly around dividend dates or periods of extreme market stress.
- Concentration risk: Allocating a meaningful portion of a portfolio to a single high-IV technology name amplifies sector-specific exposure.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.