Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMDTHIS POSTBull Put Spread | 95% | $3,445 | 13 lots | $9,555 |
| IBITBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $1,356 | 113 lots | $9,944 |
| Portfolio Total | $4,801 | 2 trades | $19,499 (+24.6% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is a global semiconductor leader operating in the Technology sector, designing high-performance CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing solutions for data centers, gaming, and embedded markets. AMD has remained a focal point for options traders in 2026, driven by sustained institutional interest in AI-infrastructure hardware and the stock's elevated implied volatility environment. As of July 13, 2026, the underlying is trading near $533.90, reflecting a stock that has seen significant price discovery over recent months. This elevated volatility regime, while creating uncertainty for directional traders, is precisely what makes premium-selling strategies structurally attractive at this moment.
Why This Trade Setup
The Bull Put Spread is a defined-risk, credit-receiving strategy that profits when the underlying stays above the short put strike at expiration — expressing a neutral-to-bullish market view. With 18 days to expiration, time decay works in the position's favour from day one. What makes this setup compelling is the strike placement: the short put sits meaningfully below the current price, providing a substantial downside cushion before the position is threatened. The QuantMint Score of 0.81 — a composite quantitative score derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum assessment — reflects a high-conviction setup. The probability of profit, as modelled through options pricing frameworks, comes in at 95%. Elevated implied volatility at the at-the-money level inflates the credit collected relative to the spread width, improving the reward-to-risk profile. Momentum is currently neutral, which is consistent with a premium-selling rather than a directional approach. Across a $10,000 position allocation, this translates to 13 contracts with a clearly defined maximum capital at risk of $9,555.
Key Risks
- Sharp downside move: A sudden, significant drop in AMD's share price — driven by an earnings surprise, sector rotation, or macro shock — could push the stock below the short put strike, resulting in a loss that scales toward the maximum defined risk.
- Volatility expansion: A spike in implied volatility before expiration increases the mark-to-market value of the spread, potentially requiring early exit at a loss even if the stock hasn't breached the strikes.
- Liquidity risk: In fast-moving markets, bid-ask spreads on multi-leg options positions can widen, affecting fill quality on entry or exit.
- Assignment risk: Early assignment on the short put leg, though uncommon in standard scenarios, is possible and should be monitored.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.