Today’s model portfolio spans 3 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $6,667 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 3 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TQQQBear Put Spread↗ | 50% | $9,021 | 31 lots | $6,479 |
| NVDABear Call Spread↗ | 86% | $930 | 15 lots | $6,582 |
| IBITTHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 82% | $1,170 | 52 lots | $6,646 |
| Portfolio Total | $11,121 | 3 trades | $19,707 (+56.4% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 3 trades at $6,667 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is one of the largest spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products available to U.S. investors, sitting squarely within the Digital Assets / Alternatives sector. As a direct proxy for Bitcoin price exposure, IBIT tends to carry elevated implied volatility relative to traditional equity ETFs — a characteristic that makes it a recurring candidate in systematic options screening. As of October 23, 2026, the underlying is trading near $46, and momentum indicators tracked by our options pricing models are pointing in a bearish direction, creating a defined-risk opportunity on the upside.
Why This Trade Setup
This week's setup is a Bear Call Spread — a short call at a higher strike paired with a long call one strike above it, both expiring in approximately 21 days. The structure collects a net credit upfront and profits if IBIT remains below the short strike at expiration. The position expresses a neutral-to-bearish market view: the trade does not require a decline, only that the ETF avoids a meaningful rally through expiration. What makes this setup compelling from a quantitative standpoint is the combination of factors feeding into its composite quantitative score of 0.89 out of 1.0 — a score derived from Black-Scholes probability analysis, implied volatility regime classification, and momentum signals. With ATM implied volatility running at 37.6% and a probability of profit modelled at 82%, the strikes are placed well above the current price, giving the position a substantial buffer against upside moves. The short-duration expiry of 21 days also limits exposure to prolonged volatility events.
Key Risks
Bitcoin-linked instruments are capable of sharp, rapid price dislocations that can overwhelm short-term probability estimates. A sudden bullish catalyst — regulatory news, institutional inflows, or a broader risk-on surge — could push IBIT above the short strike before expiration, resulting in the maximum loss on the position. Because this is a spread, the long call caps that loss, but the full amount of capital allocated to this trade remains at risk. Implied volatility can also expand quickly in digital asset markets, increasing the mark-to-market cost of closing the position early.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.