Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLABull Call Spread↗ | 81% | $10,450 | 20 lots | $9,550 |
| BABATHIS POSTBull Call Spread | 94% | $13,512 | 235 lots | $9,988 |
| Portfolio Total | $23,962 | 2 trades | $19,538 (+122.6% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (ticker: BABA) is one of the world's largest e-commerce and cloud computing conglomerates, operating across retail marketplaces, logistics, digital media, and enterprise cloud services. It sits within the Consumer Cyclical sector and carries significant sensitivity to both Chinese macroeconomic conditions and global risk appetite. As of May 13, 2026, BABA has drawn attention from systematic options screeners due to an elevated implied volatility environment — ATM implied volatility is running above 50% — which creates a structurally interesting backdrop for defined-risk directional strategies. With the stock trading near the mid-$140s, near-term options pricing reflects meaningful uncertainty, and that uncertainty is precisely what this setup seeks to exploit.
Why This Trade Setup
The strategy in focus is a Bull Call Spread expiring in 16 days, constructed by purchasing a lower-strike call and selling a higher-strike call slightly above the current underlying price. This structure expresses a modestly bullish-to-neutral directional view while capping both potential gain and maximum loss — making it a disciplined, defined-risk position. What makes this setup compelling from a quantitative standpoint is its probability of profit near 94%, derived from Black-Scholes pricing models and probability-weighted strike analysis. The QuantMint Score of 0.82 — a composite quantitative score drawing on options pricing models, implied volatility regime classification, and momentum signals — places this trade among the higher-conviction setups in today's scan. With momentum reading as neutral, the thesis does not rely on a sharp directional move; rather, it benefits from time decay and the stock simply holding near current levels through expiration.
Key Risks
Despite the high modelled probability of profit, this trade is not without risk. BABA carries inherent geopolitical and regulatory exposure — adverse headlines relating to Chinese regulatory policy or U.S.-China trade relations can produce sharp, rapid moves that override near-term statistical edges. Additionally, with implied volatility already elevated above 50%, any sudden volatility compression or expansion can shift options pricing in unexpected ways. The short time horizon of 16 days means there is limited opportunity to adjust the position if the underlying moves adversely. Maximum loss is capped and defined, but a swift downside move in BABA could result in the full loss of allocated capital for this position.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.