Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATHIS POSTBull Call Spread | 81% | $10,450 | 20 lots | $9,550 |
| BABABull Call Spread↗ | 94% | $13,512 | 235 lots | $9,988 |
| Portfolio Total | $23,962 | 2 trades | $19,538 (+122.6% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is the dominant name in the Consumer Cyclical sector's electric vehicle segment, with expanding operations across energy storage, autonomous driving development, and global manufacturing. As one of the most actively traded equities in the U.S. options market, TSLA consistently generates rich implied volatility — making it a frequent candidate in systematic options screening. With the stock trading near the $448 level heading into mid-May 2026, the options market is pricing in a notably elevated volatility regime, creating well-defined risk/reward conditions that quantitative pricing models can exploit with precision.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bull Call Spread expresses a moderately bullish to neutral-bullish directional view while capping both risk and reward. By purchasing a lower-strike call and selling a higher-strike call within the same expiration cycle, the strategy reduces the net premium paid compared to an outright long call — a meaningful advantage when implied volatility is elevated, as it is here at nearly 48%. The strikes are placed just above the current underlying price, positioning the spread to profit if TSLA holds near current levels or moves modestly higher into expiration. A composite quantitative score of 0.84 — derived from Black-Scholes probability weighting, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum assessment — reflects strong structural alignment for this setup. With a probability of profit above 80% and a 16-day expiration window, the trade balances time efficiency with meaningful profit potential. Momentum is currently neutral, which supports a defined-risk approach rather than an aggressive directional bet.
Key Risks
- Gap risk: A sharp downside move in TSLA — driven by earnings surprises, macro shocks, or sector rotation — could result in the full loss of capital allocated to this position.
- Volatility crush: A rapid decline in implied volatility can erode the value of the long call leg faster than anticipated.
- Time decay: With 16 days to expiration, theta works against the long call component daily if the stock stagnates below the lower strike.
- Liquidity risk: Wide bid-ask spreads during volatile sessions can increase effective entry and exit costs.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.