Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMETHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 89% | $6,118 | 322 lots | $9,982 |
| IBITBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $1,763 | 235 lots | $9,988 |
| Portfolio Total | $7,880 | 2 trades | $19,970 (+39.5% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
GameStop Corp. (ticker: GME) is a specialty retail company best known for its brick-and-mortar and online video game, electronics, and collectibles business. Despite years of structural headwinds from digital game distribution, GME remains one of the most closely watched names in the retail space due to its history of extreme volatility and outsized retail investor interest. As of August 26, 2026, the stock is trading near $17.89 — well below the spread's short strike — and momentum readings are neutral, suggesting the recent price action lacks a clear directional catalyst. This backdrop makes GME an interesting candidate for a defined-risk, premium-collection strategy.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, credit-generating strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short call strike at expiration. It expresses a neutral-to-bearish market view — specifically, that GME will not mount a significant rally over the next 16 days. The composite quantitative score of 0.81 — derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum scoring — reflects a high-conviction setup. With ATM implied volatility elevated at 48.2%, option premiums are relatively rich, making it an attractive environment to sell a spread and collect credit. The short strike sits meaningfully above the current price, and the probability-weighted analysis places the likelihood of the position expiring worthless (and thus fully profitable) at 89%. Strike placement and the short time horizon of 16 days to expiration further support the thesis by limiting the window for an adverse move.
Key Risks
- Gap risk: GME has a well-documented history of sudden, news-driven price spikes. A short squeeze or unexpected catalyst could push the stock through both strikes rapidly, realising the maximum loss.
- Volatility expansion: A sharp rise in implied volatility before expiration could increase the mark-to-market loss of the position even if the stock hasn't breached the short strike.
- Liquidity risk: At elevated contract counts, wide bid-ask spreads in GME options can meaningfully affect fill quality and net credit received.
- Concentration risk: Allocating a significant portion of a portfolio to a single, historically volatile name amplifies the impact of an adverse outcome.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.