Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDABear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $698 | 9 lots | $3,802 |
| PLTRBull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $666 | 9 lots | $3,834 |
| MUBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $800 | 1 lot | $3,200 |
| SLVBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $540 | 90 lots | $3,960 |
| IBITTHIS POSTBull Put Spread | 95% | $540 | 90 lots | $3,960 |
| Portfolio Total | $3,244 | 5 trades | $18,756 (+17.3% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets under management, offering retail and institutional investors direct price exposure to Bitcoin through a regulated, exchange-listed wrapper. Operating within the Digital Assets / Alternatives sector, IBIT has become the benchmark vehicle for Bitcoin exposure since spot ETFs gained U.S. regulatory approval. The fund is in focus today because its options market is displaying a well-defined implied volatility regime — with at-the-money implied volatility sitting in the mid-thirties — that creates a measurable edge for premium-selling strategies. Momentum is currently neutral, suggesting the underlying is consolidating rather than trending aggressively in either direction.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bull Put Spread is a defined-risk, credit-receiving strategy constructed by selling a put at a higher strike and buying a put at a lower strike within the same expiration. The position profits as long as IBIT remains above the short put strike at expiration — it does not require the stock to rally, only to avoid a meaningful decline. This setup expresses a neutral-to-moderately-bullish market view with a hard floor on potential loss. The composite quantitative score of 0.8 out of 1.0 — derived from Black-Scholes probability weighting, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum scoring — reflects a statistically favourable setup. The short strike is placed well below the current underlying price, and the probability-weighted model assigns this trade a 95% probability of profit at expiration. With 18 days to expiration, time decay works in the position's favour from day one. In a $20,000 illustrative portfolio divided equally across five positions, this trade allocates approximately $4,000 in capital at risk, sized at 90 contracts.
Key Risks
Bitcoin-linked instruments are capable of sharp, rapid drawdowns that can compress weeks of price action into hours. A sudden adverse move in Bitcoin's spot price could push IBIT below the short put strike before expiration, resulting in the maximum loss on the position. Liquidity in IBIT options is generally strong, but wide bid-ask spreads during volatile sessions can erode the net credit received at entry. Additionally, because the credit collected per share is modest relative to the spread width, the reward-to-risk ratio is asymmetric — the trade is structured for high probability, not high payout. Position sizing discipline is therefore essential.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.