Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTCTHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 95% | $1,298 | 22 lots | $9,702 |
| METABull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $1,210 | 5 lots | $8,790 |
| Portfolio Total | $2,508 | 2 trades | $18,492 (+13.6% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Intel Corporation (INTC) is one of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers, designing and producing processors, chipsets, and integrated circuits that power everything from personal computers to data centre infrastructure. The Technology sector broadly has seen elevated implied volatility in recent months, and Intel is no exception — its options market is currently pricing in a notably elevated level of uncertainty relative to historical norms. With the stock trading just above the $100 mark, the options chain reflects a market that is pricing in meaningful near-term movement, creating a structured environment where premium sellers can be well-compensated for defined risk.
Why This Trade Setup
The Bear Call Spread involves selling an out-of-the-money call and buying a further out-of-the-money call at the same expiration, capping both potential income and maximum loss. This structure expresses a neutral-to-bearish market view — the position profits as long as Intel's share price remains below the short strike at expiration. With a 16-day duration, the trade is positioned to benefit from accelerated time decay in the final weeks before expiry. What makes this setup compelling from a quantitative standpoint is the combination of factors captured in the composite quantitative score of 0.81 — a score derived from options pricing models and probability analysis, including Black-Scholes-derived probability estimates, the current implied volatility regime, and momentum signals. ATM implied volatility sits at a significantly elevated level, meaning the credit collected is generous relative to the width of the spread. Neutral momentum further supports the thesis that a sharp upside breakout is unlikely within the trade window. The probability of profit, as modelled across simulated price paths, is exceptionally high, with the short strike positioned well above the current underlying price.
Key Risks
The primary risk in a Bear Call Spread is a swift, sustained rally in INTC shares through and beyond the short strike before expiration. Elevated implied volatility, while beneficial for premium collection, also signals that the market assigns non-trivial probability to large moves in either direction. A positive earnings surprise, sector rotation into semiconductors, or a broader market surge could pressure this position. Maximum loss is strictly defined and limited to the spread width minus the credit received — but traders should monitor the position actively and have a pre-defined exit plan if the stock approaches the short strike.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.