Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMDBull Call Spread↗ | 81% | $4,140 | 8 lots | $3,860 |
| MUBull Call Spread↗ | 87% | $4,430 | 4 lots | $3,570 |
| TSLABear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $530 | 4 lots | $3,470 |
| INTCTHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 95% | $660 | 3 lots | $3,840 |
| SLVBull Call Spread↗ | 75% | $4,840 | 88 lots | $3,960 |
| Portfolio Total | $14,600 | 5 trades | $18,700 (+78.1% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Intel Corporation (INTC) is one of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers, designing and producing processors, chipsets, and integrated circuits across consumer, enterprise, and data centre markets. The Technology sector broadly has seen elevated implied volatility in recent months, and Intel is no exception — its options market is currently pricing in an unusually high level of near-term uncertainty. With the stock trading in the $128 range and momentum reading as neutral, there is no strong directional catalyst pushing shares higher in the immediate term. This combination of rich implied volatility and subdued momentum creates a well-defined environment for premium-collection strategies.
Why This Trade Setup
The Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, credit-generating strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short strike at expiration. By selling a call at a higher strike and buying a further out-of-the-money call as a hedge, the position collects a net credit upfront while capping maximum loss. This setup expresses a neutral-to-bearish market view — specifically, that Intel shares will not rally sharply over the next 18 days. The trade's appeal is grounded in the numbers: ATM implied volatility near 96% means option premiums are elevated, making the credit collected more attractive relative to the risk taken. A composite quantitative score of 0.83 — derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum scoring — places this among the higher-conviction setups in today's systematic screen. The probability-weighted analysis assigns a 95% probability of profit, reflecting how far out-of-the-money the short strike sits relative to current price. With 3 contracts sized against a $4,000 position allocation, total capital at risk is kept to $3,840, consistent with disciplined portfolio construction across a diversified set of trades.
Key Risks
The primary risk is a sharp, unexpected rally in INTC shares that pushes the stock above the short call strike before expiration. While the probability of this occurring is modelled as low, high implied volatility environments can produce outsized moves. A positive earnings pre-announcement, sector rotation into semiconductors, or a broad market surge could threaten the position. Because this is a defined-risk spread, maximum loss is capped — but that loss is still meaningful if the trade moves against you. Early assignment risk on the short call leg, though uncommon, should also be monitored as expiration approaches.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.