Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOWTHIS POSTBear Put Spread | 59% | $4,252 | 8 lots | $3,748 |
| METABear Put Spread↗ | 50% | $4,220 | 2 lots | $3,780 |
| MUBear Call Spread↗ | 79% | $1,170 | 1 lot | $6,834 |
| TSLABull Put Spread↗ | 78% | $453 | 1 lot | $3,300 |
| SPCXBear Call Spread↗ | 79% | $550 | 3 lots | $3,206 |
| Portfolio Total | $10,645 | 5 trades | $20,868 (+51.0% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW) is a leading enterprise software platform in the Technology sector, delivering cloud-based workflow automation and IT service management solutions to large organizations worldwide. ServiceNow is in focus today as its share price reflects notable near-term pressure, with implied volatility running significantly elevated relative to historical norms. This volatility regime, combined with a strong bearish momentum signal, has pushed the stock into the crosshairs of systematic options screening. The current market structure suggests that options pricing is reflecting meaningful uncertainty around the stock's near-term direction — a condition that probability-weighted spread strategies are designed to exploit.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Put Spread expresses a moderately bearish directional view: the position profits if ServiceNow's share price declines toward or below the short put strike by expiration, while the long put at a higher strike caps the maximum loss. This is a debit spread — the position costs a net premium upfront, which represents the maximum capital at risk. The trade carries a probability of profit derived from Black-Scholes pricing models and implied volatility analysis, with the strikes placed to reflect the current bearish momentum regime. The composite quantitative score of 0.94 out of 1.0 — a score derived from options pricing models and probability analysis incorporating implied volatility regime, momentum, and Black-Scholes probability weighting — places this setup among the highest-conviction setups in today's scan. With 18 days to expiration, time decay works in a defined and measurable way, and the position's risk is fully bounded from the moment it is opened.
Key Risks
The primary risk is that ServiceNow's share price stabilizes or rallies above the long put strike before expiration, in which case the full net debit paid is lost — this is the maximum loss, and it is fixed at entry. A sudden reversal driven by a positive earnings surprise, sector rotation into Technology, or a broader market rally could work against this position. Implied volatility contraction could also reduce the spread's value before expiration. The probability of profit figure is an estimate, not a promise, and actual outcomes will vary.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.