Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMEBull Call Spread↗ | 33% | $12,000 | 160 lots | $4,000 |
| NVDABear Call Spread↗ | 85% | $621 | 18 lots | $3,895 |
| AMDBear Put Spread↗ | 50% | $2,282 | 1 lot | $2,218 |
| SPCXTHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 78% | $648 | 4 lots | $3,360 |
| IBITBear Call Spread↗ | 77% | $928 | 32 lots | $3,885 |
| Portfolio Total | $16,480 | 5 trades | $17,358 (+94.9% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) operates in the Industrials sector, developing and launching commercial and government spacecraft, satellite systems, and next-generation launch vehicles. The company sits at the intersection of defense contracting and commercial space infrastructure — a segment that has attracted significant speculative interest and, with it, elevated implied volatility. As of October 14, 2026, SPCX is trading near the mid-$150s, and options pricing models are reflecting a notably elevated volatility environment. That elevated implied volatility is precisely what makes a premium-collecting strategy worth examining here.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, credit-collecting strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short strike at expiration. It expresses a neutral-to-moderately-bearish market view — appropriate given SPCX's current neutral momentum reading and the absence of a near-term catalyst that would justify a sharp move higher. With ATM implied volatility running well above historical norms, options premiums are inflated, which benefits sellers. The spread structure caps both the credit collected and the maximum loss, making it a disciplined way to monetise that volatility premium. The composite quantitative score of 0.81 out of 1.0 — derived from Black-Scholes probability weighting, implied volatility regime classification, and momentum analysis — reflects a structurally well-supported setup. A probability of profit near 78% indicates the strikes are placed comfortably above the current price, with meaningful statistical cushion before the short leg comes under pressure. With 16 days to expiration, time decay works in the position's favour from day one.
Key Risks
The primary risk is a sharp, sustained rally in SPCX above the short strike before expiration. Industrials names tied to government contracts or high-profile launch events can gap higher on unexpected news — a contract award, a successful mission, or a broader sector rotation. Because this is a spread, the maximum loss is strictly defined and cannot exceed the width of the strikes minus the credit received. Position sizing within a diversified portfolio context helps contain the impact of any single adverse outcome. Implied volatility compression could also reduce the value of the spread if an early exit is considered.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.