Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMEBull Call Spread↗ | 33% | $12,000 | 160 lots | $4,000 |
| NVDABear Call Spread↗ | 85% | $621 | 18 lots | $3,895 |
| AMDTHIS POSTBear Put Spread | 50% | $2,282 | 1 lot | $2,218 |
| SPCXBear Call Spread↗ | 78% | $648 | 4 lots | $3,360 |
| IBITBear Call Spread↗ | 77% | $928 | 32 lots | $3,885 |
| Portfolio Total | $16,480 | 5 trades | $17,358 (+94.9% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is a leading semiconductor designer operating in the Technology sector, competing across CPUs, GPUs, and data center accelerator markets. AMD has been a focal point for options traders in recent sessions, with its implied volatility running significantly elevated relative to historical norms. At current levels, the options market is pricing in substantial near-term price movement, creating a rich environment for structured spread strategies. Systematic screening of AMD's options chain — evaluated through implied volatility regime analysis and probability-weighted scoring — has surfaced a directional setup worth examining closely heading into the final weeks of October 2026.
Why This Trade Setup
The Bear Put Spread expresses a moderately bearish directional view on AMD over the next 16 days. By combining a long put at a higher strike with a short put at a lower strike, the structure caps both the maximum cost and the maximum potential gain, making it a defined-risk way to position for downside. What draws the quant model to this setup is a confluence of factors: AMD's implied volatility is running above 53%, indicating the options market is pricing in elevated uncertainty; momentum indicators are aligned bearishly; and the strike placement reflects a probability-weighted structure derived from Black-Scholes pricing models. The composite quantitative score of 0.82 out of 1.0 — a score derived from options pricing models and probability analysis — places this among the higher-conviction setups in today's scan. The trade carries a probability of profit near the coin-flip threshold, consistent with a moderately in-the-money directional spread rather than a far out-of-the-money lottery.
Key Risks
This is a debit spread, meaning capital is paid upfront — the maximum loss is the net premium paid, fully realized if AMD closes above the long put strike at expiration. With only 16 days to expiration, time decay works against the position daily, and any bullish reversal in AMD — driven by sector rotation, positive macro data, or company-specific news — could erode the position's value rapidly. Elevated implied volatility also means a volatility contraction (IV crush) could reduce the spread's value even if price moves in the anticipated direction. Position sizing within a diversified portfolio context remains essential to managing this defined but real capital-at-risk exposure.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.