Today’s model portfolio spans 4 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $5,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 4 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLABear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $555 | 5 lots | $4,445 |
| INTCBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $770 | 28 lots | $4,830 |
| NOWTHIS POSTBull Put Spread | 95% | $1,617 | 22 lots | $4,983 |
| SLVBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $812 | 58 lots | $4,988 |
| Portfolio Total | $3,754 | 4 trades | $19,246 (+19.5% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 4 trades at $5,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW) is a leading enterprise software platform in the Technology sector, best known for its cloud-based IT service management and workflow automation solutions. The company serves a broad base of large enterprises and government clients, making its revenue streams relatively resilient across economic cycles. As of September 2, 2026, NOW is trading near the $140 level — a price point that reflects the stock's established position within the broader software landscape. With implied volatility running elevated relative to historical norms, the options market is pricing in meaningful near-term uncertainty, which creates a favourable environment for premium-selling strategies.
Why This Trade Setup
The Bull Put Spread is a defined-risk, income-generating strategy that profits when the underlying stock stays above the short put strike at expiration. By selling a put at a higher strike and buying a lower-strike put as a hedge, the position collects a net credit while capping maximum loss — making it well-suited for traders with a neutral-to-bullish directional bias. This setup on NOW carries a composite quantitative score of 0.79 — derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum assessment. With a probability of profit near 95% and strikes placed meaningfully below the current underlying price, the model identifies this as a structurally sound income trade. Momentum is currently neutral, which aligns with the non-directional nature of the spread. The elevated implied volatility environment at roughly 51% ATM IV means the premium collected is relatively rich for the risk assumed, improving the reward-to-risk profile versus lower-volatility regimes. With only 16 days to expiration, time decay works in the position's favour from day one.
Key Risks
- Sharp downside move: A sudden, significant decline in NOW's share price — driven by an earnings surprise, macro shock, or sector rotation — could push the stock below the short put strike, resulting in the maximum loss on the position.
- Volatility expansion: A spike in implied volatility before expiration can increase the mark-to-market loss even if the stock hasn't breached the strikes.
- Early assignment risk: Although uncommon with spreads, the short put leg carries theoretical early assignment risk, particularly around dividend dates or periods of deep in-the-money pricing.
- Liquidity risk: Wider bid-ask spreads in fast-moving markets can make it more costly to exit the position before expiration.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.