Today’s model portfolio spans 2 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $10,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 2 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUBear Put Spread↗ | 51% | $10,490 | 4 lots | $9,510 |
| TSLATHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 86% | $1,375 | 22 lots | $9,671 |
| Portfolio Total | $11,865 | 2 trades | $19,181 (+61.9% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 2 trades at $10,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a global leader in electric vehicles, energy storage, and solar technology, operating within the Consumer Cyclical sector. As one of the most actively traded equities in the options market, Tesla consistently commands elevated implied volatility relative to its peers — a characteristic that shapes the risk/reward profile of options strategies built around it. With the stock trading near $391, the market is pricing in a wide range of potential outcomes over the near term. Momentum readings are currently neutral, and implied volatility sits at a notably elevated level, creating a backdrop where premium sellers may find structurally attractive conditions.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, credit-generating strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short strike at expiration. It expresses a neutral-to-moderately-bearish market view — the position does not require the stock to fall, only to avoid a significant rally through the spread's strikes over the next 18 days. The strikes are placed meaningfully above the current price, providing a substantial buffer before the position comes under pressure. QuantMint's composite quantitative score of 0.88 — derived from Black-Scholes probability modelling, implied volatility regime analysis, and momentum scoring — reflects a high-conviction setup. The 86% probability of profit Elevated implied volatility at40.3% means the credit collected is relatively rich for the distance of the strikes, improving the reward-to-risk ratio versus a lower-volatility environment. With neutral momentum, there is no strong directional signal pushing the stock aggressively toward the short strike.
Key Risks
The primary risk is a sharp, sustained rally in TSLA above the short strike before expiration. Tesla is known for outsized single-session moves driven by earnings announcements, product events, or macro sentiment shifts — any of which could occur within this 18-day window. If the stock closes above the long strike at expiration, the position realises its maximum loss. Traders should also be aware that elevated implied volatility can expand further, increasing the mark-to-market value of the spread before expiration even if the stock has not yet breached the strikes. Position sizing relative to total portfolio risk is critical.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.