Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $707 | 1 lot | $4,292 |
| NVDABull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $707 | 9 lots | $3,794 |
| PLTRBull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $707 | 9 lots | $3,794 |
| SMHTHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 95% | $398 | 1 lot | $2,102 |
| SLVBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $702 | 23 lots | $3,898 |
| Portfolio Total | $3,220 | 5 trades | $17,880 (+18.0% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is one of the most widely followed benchmarks in the semiconductor sector, offering concentrated exposure to the world's largest chip designers and manufacturers. Semiconductors sit at the intersection of AI infrastructure buildout, consumer electronics cycles, and geopolitical supply-chain dynamics — making SMH a sector that commands close attention from both institutional and retail investors. As of July 10, 2026, SMH is trading above $611, and implied volatility has surged to elevated levels, creating a structurally rich environment for premium-selling strategies. Momentum readings are currently neutral, suggesting the ETF lacks a strong directional catalyst in the near term.
Why This Trade Setup
A Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, credit-generating strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short strike at expiration. By selling an out-of-the-money call and buying a higher-strike call as a hedge, the position collects a net credit while capping maximum loss — making it well-suited for neutral-to-bearish market views. What makes this setup compelling is the combination of factors surfaced by QuantMint's composite quantitative score of 0.86 — a score derived from options pricing models and probability analysis, including Black-Scholes-derived probability estimates, implied volatility regime classification, and momentum signals. With ATM implied volatility at a notably elevated 53.3%, option premiums are rich, and the short strike sits comfortably above current price levels. The probability-weighted model assigns this trade a 95% probability of profit, reflecting the significant buffer between today's price and the short strike through the 21-day expiration window.
Key Risks
The primary risk in a Bear Call Spread is a sharp, sustained rally in SMH through and beyond the short strike before expiration. Semiconductor ETFs can move aggressively on macro catalysts — earnings surprises from major holdings, unexpected policy shifts on chip exports, or a broad risk-on surge. While maximum loss is strictly defined and limited to the capital allocated per contract, a rapid upside move could push the position into full loss territory. Elevated implied volatility, while beneficial for premium collection, also signals that the market is pricing in the possibility of outsized moves in either direction.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.