Today’s model portfolio spans 5 quantitatively-scored trades across our watchlist.
Each position is sized to fit within a $4,000 budget slice. The post below is a deep dive on one of those trades — use the table to explore the others.
Today’s $20,000 Model Portfolio · 5 Trades
| Ticker & Strategy | POP | Max Profit | Contracts | Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAMBull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $548 | 5 lots | $3,952 |
| TSLABear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $698 | 9 lots | $3,802 |
| IBITBear Call Spread↗ | 95% | $705 | 94 lots | $3,995 |
| INTCBull Put Spread↗ | 95% | $408 | 1 lot | $2,592 |
| PLTRTHIS POSTBear Call Spread | 95% | $907 | 49 lots | $3,994 |
| Portfolio Total | $3,265 | 5 trades | $18,335 (+17.8% if max profit) |
Equal-weight sizing: $20,000 split across 5 trades at $4,000 per position. Contracts = floor(position budget ÷ max risk per contract) so each trade stays within its risk envelope. POP = probability of profit at expiration (model-derived). Max Profit = maximum gain if held to expiration and the spread expires at full profit. Click any row to read the full trade analysis.
Company & Market Context
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is a data analytics and software platform company operating in the Technology sector, serving both government and commercial clients globally. Palantir has been a high-profile name in the market, known for elevated implied volatility relative to many of its large-cap technology peers. As of June 26, 2026, the stock is trading above the $112 level, and systematic options screening has surfaced a compelling short-premium setup. With at-the-money implied volatility running near 49%, the options market is pricing in substantial near-term movement — a condition that tends to favour disciplined premium-selling strategies when momentum is neutral and price is well below the targeted strikes.
Why This Trade Setup
The Bear Call Spread is a defined-risk, short-premium strategy that profits when the underlying stays below the short strike at expiration. By selling a call at a higher strike and buying a call one dollar further out-of-the-money, the position caps both potential income and maximum loss. This structure expresses a neutral-to-bearish market view — specifically, that PLTR will not rally sharply through the short strike before the July 17 expiration. The trade carries a composite quantitative score of 0.86, derived from Black-Scholes probability analysis, implied volatility regime assessment, and momentum scoring. With momentum reading neutral and the short strike positioned meaningfully above the current price, the probability-weighted model strongly supports this setup. A 95% probability of profit reflects the significant buffer between today's price and the short strike, making this a high-conviction income trade within a structured, rules-based framework.
Key Risks
The primary risk is a sharp, sustained rally in PLTR that pushes the stock above the short call strike before expiration — a scenario that would result in the maximum loss on the position. Palantir is a high-beta, sentiment-driven stock, and unexpected positive catalysts such as earnings pre-announcements, major contract wins, or broad technology sector surges can compress the available buffer quickly. Elevated implied volatility also means the stock is capable of large single-day moves. Position sizing within a defined capital-at-risk allocation is essential to managing this tail risk responsibly.
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Important Disclaimer: This content is generated automatically for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. QuantMint is not a registered investment adviser.